I hope you had a great Christmas and holiday season, with time to relax, reset, and enjoy some good food and company.
The Market Reset
What we're experiencing isn't a crash — it's a reset. Buyers didn't disappear; they simply tapped the brakes.
At the same time, we're not building enough homes. That ongoing shortage continues to put upward pressure on prices over the long term. Rates have stabilized, and we're likely close to the "new normal."
- Affordability is better than 2023–24
- The biggest rate-driven price drop is behind us
- Fundamentals remain solid
Think of it like traffic: everyone slowed down because they thought something was wrong — but the road ahead is still clear.
Where Things Are Heading
Condos
The softest part of the market right now. Small units are most affected, with 12–24 months of inventory still to clear. That creates a short window of buyer leverage worth paying attention to.
Low-Rise Homes (Semis, Towns, Detached)
Stable, end-user driven, and holding value better than condos. Limited downside risk here.
The Supply Problem
Developers have paused many projects. What looks like "too much supply" today becomes "not enough supply" in 2–3 years. Short term: more opportunity, especially in freehold homes with no maintenance fees. Long term: tighter supply and stronger pricing.
Five Insights You Won't See in Headlines
1. Mortgage renewals won't break the market. Banks are extending amortizations to soften payment shocks. This reduces forced selling and keeps prices more stable than the headlines suggest.
2. High-income renters are choosing flexibility. People earning $80K–$140K are renting longer by choice, which keeps rental demand strong even in a slower market.
3. Developers are delaying projects. Higher financing costs mean fewer launches today — which guarantees future supply shortages, especially for family-sized homes.
4. Immigration is slower, but stronger. More newcomers are already here as students or workers, earning higher incomes. They settle faster and buy sooner, supporting demand more efficiently than previous waves.
5. Investors are sitting, not fleeing. Most investor-owned condos aren't being dumped. Owners are holding, waiting for conditions to improve. That limits the volume of distressed supply hitting the market.
My Outlook
Next 2 Years
- Condo prices may adjust slightly
- Low-rise homes remain stable
- More buyers return as rates ease
- Inventory gradually tightens
Next 5 Years
- Strong rebound driven by low construction
- More end-user buyers, less speculation
- Price growth returns — steady, not wild
Common Questions I Get
"How much can I afford?"
Rule of thumb: about 5× your gross income. Example: income of $100K → approximately $500K mortgage plus your down payment. Exact numbers depend on your situation — happy to run them for you.
"My lease is ending — what happens now?"
Nothing changes automatically. In Ontario, leases convert to month-to-month under the same terms until proper notice is given. You don't need to sign a new lease unless you want to.
"My landlord wants to raise my rent — now what?"
The rental market is slower, and many of my clients are successfully negotiating lower increases. For rent-controlled units, the 2026 maximum is 2.1%, with 90 days' notice required. If you want help wording a response to your landlord, I can draft it for you.