I was showing a unit in Etobicoke a few weeks back — one of my tenant clients, been a renter the last few years, has the income, has the downpayment, sharp guy, knows the market better than most buyers I work with.
We're standing in the living room and we get talking about buying. He says: "I'm not buying anything right now. This market has more pain coming."
I didn't argue with him. Honestly, looking at today's numbers alone, his logic makes complete sense. There are cranes everywhere. Rents are softer than they've been in years. Landlords are throwing in free parking and two months rent just to fill units. Why rush?
Here's what I told him on the drive home.
The Supply Picture
In 2024 and 2025, the GTA delivered somewhere around 29,000 new condo units per year — one of the biggest completion waves this city has ever seen. That's the flood of supply everyone is feeling right now. It's real. It's why your landlord is suddenly very friendly.
Here's where it gets interesting.
That number drops to around 22,000 in 2026. Then 14,000 in 2027. Then 13,000 in 2028. And by 2029 — Urbanation, the firm that has tracked Toronto's condo market since 1981, has said that by the end of this decade, there will be virtually zero new condo completions. Their words, not mine.
Think about that for a second. The city that couldn't stop building is about to stop building.
Why the Pipeline Is Empty
Developers need presales to get financing, and presales have essentially collapsed. In the first quarter of 2026, only 246 new condo units sold across the entire Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area — the lowest quarterly number in 35 years. No presales today means no shovels in the ground tomorrow, which means nothing to deliver in four or five years.
Meanwhile, on the demand side, nothing has changed. Toronto is still one of the fastest-growing cities in North America. People still need a place to live. And there are currently over 100,000 GTA buyers sitting on the sidelines right now, holding off, waiting for the "right moment" — just like my client.
The Scenario Worth Thinking About
The people waiting for a better deal are all waiting for the same moment. When that moment arrives — and markets do find their floor — those 100,000 buyers don't trickle back in. They rush back in. At the exact same time that new supply is running the driest it's been in a generation.
I'm not saying buy tomorrow. I'm not saying the bottom is in. What I am saying is that the window where you have time, choice, and negotiating power — that window has a clock on it that most people aren't watching.
He texted me later that night. "So waiting might actually cost more than just buying now at a discount."
Exactly.